Christmas election in Canada
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Holiday election campaign looms large
No more support, NDP tells Liberals
Rivals dare Layton to pull the trigger

Nov. 8, 2005. 08:17 AM
BRUCE CAMPION-SMITH, LES WHITTINGTON AND SUSAN DELACOURT
OTTAWA BUREAU

Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals are refusing to blink in the face of a threatened Christmas election campaign, promising business as usual even after the New Democrats said the shaky minority government could no longer count on their support.


NDP Leader Jack Layton rejected the latest Liberal proposals for health-care reform yesterday and said his MPs would no longer vote to prevent an election.


But the Liberals vowed to barrel ahead with the health-care reforms rejected as inadequate by the NDP. And Layton's stance led the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois to dare him to make the first move toward pitching the country into an election no one seems to want.


That leaves all three opposition parties saying they are ready to defeat the government and force an election — although none has a specific plan for doing so. As a result, the likely tipping point has switched to later this month or in early December — two months before Martin promised to call the next election.


Layton is now, in effect, encircled in the threat he made yesterday to cut short the life of this Parliament, with the government and the NDP's opposition colleagues saying the party with the least number of MPs in the Commons will have to be the one to pull the switch.


"There's no basis for our party to express confidence in this government," Layton told a Toronto audience yesterday after his party rejected a Liberal proposal as inadequate to protect public health care or, in effect, the government.


"Therefore, this Parliament's life is likely limited."


The Liberals hold 133 of the 308 seats in the Commons. The Conservatives have 98, the Bloc 54 and the NDP 18. There are four independent MPs and one seat is vacant.


At a nomination meeting in Hamilton last night, Layton said there would be an election this winter, but he told reporters it didn't have to be at Christmas.


"We certainly wouldn't want to see an election in the Christmas-New Year's period, nor is there any need for one to happen there," he said before the meeting.


"There's lots of other alternatives. To have an election sometime later in January is very easily arranged. It's up to the Prime Minister to set the date."


Already, campaign fever is gripping Ottawa just in time for the first chilly blasts of winter. Party operatives were all huddling last night, reviewing options and their state of election readiness.


"The only certain consequence at the moment (of Layton's threat) is that, when the House comes back next week, Canadians will be exposed to what they most dislike about politics — the uncertainty, the gamesmanship, the speculation about a snap election," Government House Leader Tony Valeri said in an interview yesterday.


Unless it decides to pull the plug itself as a pre-emptive move — a scenario believed to be remote with the Liberals still recovering after last week's sponsorship-scandal report — the government intends to return to the Commons on Monday with a big, economic statement.


That statement will include middle-class tax cuts and debt reduction, action to reduce hospital waiting times, battling the United States on softwood lumber and pursuing an independent foreign policy — all the things the Liberals will portray as more important to Canadians than a slightly-earlier-than-expected election.


The health-care reform the NDP rejected yesterday, including some measures to strengthen medicare protection, is also part of the Liberals' plans.


"I think the onus is on the opposition parties to decide whether they will force an election over the holiday season," said Valeri.


"I think they are going to have to justify how such a move is in the public interest when we're about 90 days from the call of the next general election, which is what the Prime Minister pledged last spring."


Layton didn't hold out much hope yesterday a negotiated solution could be found with the Liberals, even though Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh is saying he's willing to keep talking.


Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe, meanwhile, threw down their own challenges, saying they wouldn't use their designated chances next week to kill the government — meaning Layton will have to choose his own moment, either when he gets his "opposition day" on Nov. 24, or on Dec. 8 and 9 when the Commons is due to vote on spending estimates.


Dec. 8 is looming as the most likely date the opposition parties would topple the Liberals. Under Canada's election law, federal campaigns must last at least 36 days, though there's no maximum period specified.


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